Apocalypse: Zillow

How is Covid going to affect your ability to keep a roof over your head?

Like many people in the last few years, my costs have skyrocketed. Part of that is because I had to leave an otherwise-lovely state because of a teeny-tiny Nazi problem, a small insanity problem, and just a basic inability-to-get-good-healthcare problem.¹

But even before I left Idaho, our housing costs had escalated wildly. First we had to move our of our old apartment building because, unlike the CDC and the WHO, I was clearly able to tell that #CovidIsAirborne from the start and I didn’t want to be living in a building with shared interiors.

And how did I accomplish this amazing feat, you ask? How did I reach this conclusion years before the top minds in public health grudgingly admitted suddenly discovered that Covid is airborne? Easy. I just looked up articles about SARS on PubMed.² And there, I found out about the massive spread that happened in the Amoy Gardens apartment complex during original SARS.

So yeah. They knew Covid was airborne, from the start. They just chose not to tell us.

Back to housing: we moved out of our small, cheap apartment into a larger, nicer rental townhouse with no shared air. It was a stretch for our budget but, what the hey, if it protects me from getting Covid it’s worth it. And it’ll just be for a year….right? After the vaccine, everything will get back to normal.

Oh my Sweet Summer Child.

2 years later, we were paying about 50% more than we had when we’d moved in. In Boise. Have I mentioned that Boise is, well, in Idaho? Because it has a lot of natural beauty, but also, and I cannot stress this enough, it’s still in Idaho.

Anyhoo.

I look at Zillow a lot these days. Zillow, Redfin, Craigslist. Anything to square this circle. As we dig deeper into our savings, I try to figure it out: Affordable Housing. Access to Healthcare. Choose One.

(Choose One, if you’re lucky.)

So I start researching what the experts were saying. They all say the housing boom is the new normal. It all sounds like this: blah blah blah Household Formation blah blah blah New Normal blah blah blah Golden Handcuffs blah blah blah Millenials blah blah blah Chronic Undersupply.

And I’m like. But what about Covid? Because, look.

Sick people don’t buy houses.

Want to see some unusual trends? Here’s one:

In the Bay Area, one of the most expensive parts of the country, assisted living condo prices are down, sometimes by more than 80%:

credit: @now_grace on Twitter

80%. In Marin County.

Why are these senior highrises empty?

Covid killed all their customers, that’s why. And since #CovidIsAirborne, I’m fearful that any new residents are going to get Covid there too.

“Ok,” you say callously, “But that’s seniors. We know Covid killed the elderly disproportionately. But I had Covid, and I’m fine. My wife had it, and she’s fine. And we still can’t find a house.”

All I can say is, that all the folks who think that the next decade is going to be primarily about new household formation are out of their minds.

Let me tell you what it’s like, when you have an invisible, energy-draining disease that nobody believes is real, and that has very few treatments. I have a little experience in this area.

Well actually, first let me tell you what it’s like when you have an energy-draining disease that people do believe is real. Once upon a time, I had a friend with MS. When he got diagnosed (Actually Diagnosed! Can you imagine!), he was still working. But he started to make plans. He saved his money. He tried to get as many raises as he could. He knew that, one day, he would have to go on disability — and he knew his disability income would be based on his former employment income.

So he planned, he saved, and, when his body just gave out, he applied for disability and he got it.

And now he lives a comfortable, disabled life.

But here’s what it’s like, when you have the “wrong” disease. And trust me, Long Covid is going to be the “wrong” disease for a long, long time. How could it be otherwise? The wheels of capitalism nearly fell off when we tried to contain Covid in 2020. The Powers that Be aren’t going to make that mistake twice. We must work and we must consume, and all other options are off the table.

This means that, officially, Long Covid can’t doesn’t exist.

So you go to the doctor, with your unacceptable symptoms. “I feel like I’m dying,” you say. “I’m afraid I’m going to lose my job, I’ve had to take so many sick days.”

“Mmmmmmm,” says the doc. “Afraid, you say. So you have anxiety.”

Statistically, you are a woman,³ so he says something patronizing to you and vaguely sexist, but subtle enough that you can’t quite call him out on it. Then he hands you a prescription for Zoloft.

There is no discussion of help, safety net, disability income or, God Forbid, actual treatment. Your issue, he tells you, is how you feel about what-you-think-of-as-symptoms.

Satisfied that he has done enough before his golf game, he shoos you out the door.

You might try another guy. Or two or three. But, unless you’re rich, you don’t get any useful tests.⁴ You don’t get any real care. And, most crucially, you have absolutely no way to replace your income if you have to stop working.

So, you push through. They think it’s not real — hell, maybe they’re right! There was that one day, 6 weeks ago, when you kind of had a good afternoon, so who knows, maybe you’re getting better. I mean, people who are actually healthy don’t tend to remember their good days specifically like that, they can’t count them on one hand like that, but who can really think about anything right now? You’ve got work to get to, you’ve got your kids to support, and you’re so very, very tired.

Then, at some point, things start to fall apart. Maybe your workplace fires you for being sick too much. They talk about your performance — but your performance was never a problem before you got sick, and they know that, and you know that, but they say it anyways and you don’t really have any recourse.

Or they say they’re doing layoffs, but somehow the layoffs are….just you.

Anything to avoid scrutiny for their illegal practices. Disability is, after all, a protected class.⁵

Of course, without a real diagnosis, it’s very hard to prove anything. It’s hard to say you’re being discriminated against for being disabled if you’re “not really disabled.” See how that works? And anyways, proving it would mean going to court. And going to court would take exactly what you don’t have anymore: money, and energy.

Maybe something else happens. You push yourself too hard one week. You really want to go to that wedding. Your kid gets sick. You have minor surgery. And you crash, and you….literally…can’t…push through. You are broken now, and there is no fixing you.

What happens next depends on your general fortune. If you have family or access to money, you accept the reduction in your circumstances, the new state of being dependent, and you keep trying to look for answers. You sell your car. You play the game of, “Pimp My Sickbed.”

You doubt you’re “really” sick. You feel guilty.

If you don’t have those things, well…a lot of times you lose everything.

Now. Let’s look to the future.

Statistically, 3 infections means you have a 38% chance of Long Covid. And of course there are different degrees of Long Covid, there’s “no more 5 mile runs” all the way to “I can’t get out of bed.” But for a whole lot of the 38%, your career has, at best, peaked. You will, at best, never be able to put in the hours and effort you once could.

At worst, you are on your way to partial or full disability.

How many people do you know, that have gotten Covid 3 times by now? A lot, right? Even I’ve had Covid 3 times, and I avoided almost all humans for 4 years straight.⁶

Now, by 2030 — how many people would you say, will have caught Covid at least 3 times?

Conservatively, I’d say at least 50% of the world will have caught Covid 3 times by 2030.

50% x 38% = 19%.

That means, if nothing changes — and I’m being super optimistic here — about 1 in 5 working-age adults will have Long Covid by 2030. And a whole lot of them won’t be able to work.

This means children moving back in with their parents, and kids who are never able to finish high school, much less go off to college — what with the brain fog and general fatigue. It means enormous financial strain, made worse by the high cost of healthcare in the Hellscape that is America.

These are not people buying new houses. They are selling houses, using the equity to keep themselves afloat, and scraping their fingernails bloody as they try to keep from sliding down the cliff face into abject poverty.

There will be people unaffected by this. Some people are just lucky. There may even be families unaffected by this.

But not many.

So: what can we do about housing? I honestly have no idea. What I do know, though, is that there’s a tsunami of disability baked into the pipeline, and it’s going to affect absolutely everything, and that will definitely include housing. And none of the experts are even acknowledging this as a problem because, you know…“Covid is Over.”

1. St. Luke’s in Boise missed my adenomyosis on an MRI. And they repeatedly missed a UTI because they’re too cheap to run their cultures for 2 full days. They missed some other stuff as well. They’re not a great hospital.

2. If only the CDC had thought of this!

3. Covid kills more men in the acute stage, but gives more women chronic disability long-term.

4. There are Long Covid clinics, with real tests, and some helpful treatments, but they charge a ton and have enormous waitlists. That will be a matter for another post.

5. I mean, but not for long, if the Supreme Court has anything to do about it.

6. But not, unfortunately, all medical facilities, where I caught all 3 infections.